Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Topic 5 - Cold War Stages Notes


~ Cold War Notes ~

Stage One - Salami tactics:
o      Soviet Union gained control over Eastern Europe by ‘salami tactics’
o      Term from Hungarian Communist leader, Rakosi
o      Stage 1: Soviets supervised the organization of governments
o      Stage 2: Each of the parties was ‘sliced off’
o      Communism was left and then local Communists were replace (if need be) by Moscow-trained people
o      ‘Baggage Train’ leaders who spent much of war in Moscow and returned to Eastern Europe were considered trustworthy and thus these leaders would ensure that post-war governments of their countries would be dominated by Moscow-backed ‘Stalinist’ Communists

Example - Poland:
o      ‘Free elections’ promised by Stalin at Yalta were not held until 19 January 1947
o      Before elections had been a campaign of murder, censorship, and intimidation
o      Over 50,000 people were deported to Siberia before the elections
o      During elections Mikolajczyk’s Polish Peasant Party had 246 candidates disqualified; 149 were arrested and 18 murdered
o      1 million votes were taken off the electoral register for some reason or another
o      Communists secured complete control
o      Pattern of securing Soviet-Communist style governments occurred in – Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary

 Soviet Pressure on Iran
o      Tried to increase political control in Iran because Stalin wanted rights to Black Sea Straits and to Iranian oil as did his former allies
o      At the Tehran Conference it was agreed that both British and Soviets would withdraw troops after war
o      UK took troops but Stalin left 30,000 in north, claiming they were needed there to help put down rebellion
o      Soviet troops encouraged a Communist uprising
o      UN had first crisis and troops retreated

Instability in Greece and Turkey
o      After WWII there anti-imperialist, nationalist, and some pro-Communist rebellions
o      Rebellions were been directed and supported by Soviets
o      Churchill, in particular, was annoyed at Stalin’s disregard for the ‘Percentages Agreement’

Communist parties in Italy and France
o      Membership increased due to economic deprivations and hardships
o      Americans and British concerned parties were receiving encouragement from Moscow
o      Italy and France could be the weak-links in anti-Communist Western Europe

Step Two - George Kennan’s long telegram (February 1946):
o      US diplomat is Moscow
o      Key ideas:
o      The USSR’s view of world was a traditional one of insecurity
o      The Soviet’s want to advance Stalinist ideology
o      Soviet regime was cruel and repressive and justified by perceiving nothing but evil in the outside world.  That a hostile view of the outside world would sustain the internal Stalinist system
o      The USSR were hostile to west, but would withdraw when strong resistance is encountered
o      ‘Impevorous to the logic of reason, Moscow [is] highly sensitive to the logic of force.’
o      Kennan’s ‘logic of force’ argument helped harden attitudes in US and played large roll in development of US policy

Step Three – Churchill’s Iron Certain Speech (March 1946):
o      Defining moments in Cold War
o      Former British Prime Minister speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri
o      Basis for speech was that by 1946, Soviet-dominated Communist governments were set up in Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romanian
o      In spite of Yalta where it was agreed that there’d be free/democratic elections
o      Communist regimes not directly linked to Moscow established in Albania and Yugoslavia
o      Presence of Red Army in countries ‘liberated’ from Germany
o      Within three years Soviet influence extend to East Germany and Czechoslovakia

Soviet Reaction to speech
o      Outrage
o      Stalin compared Churchill to Hitler
o      Speech had led to further hardening of opinions on both sides
o   Soviets withdrew from International Monetary Fund (IMF)
o   Intense anti-Western propaganda
o   Initiated five-year plan for self-strengthening

Step Four: The Truman Doctrine
o      Truman made speech at Congress on March 12, 1947
o      Put forth US had obligation to ‘support free peoples who are resisting subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.’
o      Radical change in US foreign policy of ‘isolationists’
o      In response to unstable Greece and Turkey
o      British government could no longer offer assistance to Greek government as war left them £3,000 million debt
o      US didn’t want communist take over so US aid and military advisers were sent over to Greece in name of preserving democracy over communism
o      ‘Doctrine became an ideological shield behind which the US marched to rebuild Western political and economic system and counter radical left’ – Walter LaFeber

Step Five: The Marshall Plan
o      Economic extension of the ideas in the Truman Doctrine
o      ‘Without which there can be no political stability and no assure peace.’
o      Designed to give immediate economic help to Europe
o      Involved allowing the US to investigate the financial records of applicants – USSR not tolerate condition
o      The stated aims of Marshall Plan:
o      Revive European working economies so that political and social stability could ensue
o      Safeguard the future of the US economy
o      To avoid the interpretation that US was coercing European governments to accept, made clear ‘initiative must come from Europe.’
o      Success of bill was due to the Czechoslovakian Coup February 1948
o      Previously the US had attempted to unite West with economic tactics; now they were on the path towards military unity

Soviet Reaction to Marshall Plan
o      Soviets rejected Plan, as Americans intended them to because asked for financial records
o      Soviets saw a primary example of ‘dollar imperialism’ – US establishing European empire by economic domination and dependence, which would ultimately give political control
o      In response came up with Molotov Plan, which was a series of bilateral trade agreements aimed to tie the economies of Eastern Europe to the USSR
o      Outcome was creation of COMECON in January 1949 (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance)
o      Designed to stimulate and control their economic development and support collectivization of agriculture and development of heavy industry

Cominform and the ‘Two Camps’ doctrine
o      Cominform – Communist Information Bureau made in September 1947
o      Instrument to increase Stalin’s control over Communist parties of other countries
o      Communists from USSR, Yugoslavia, France, Italy, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania
o       West concerned organization would spread Communism
o      Stalin’s ‘Two Camps’ Doctrine – developed his idea of Europe divided
o      Became a firm foundation of Soviet policy
o      February 1946 Stalin delivered speech emphasizing creation of two camps
o      Americans had organized an ‘anti-Soviet’ bloc of countries
o      The ‘second camp’ was USSR and ‘new democracies’ of Eastern Europe
o      Soviet Doctrine very similar to ‘new world order’ outlined by Truman

Step Six: Red Army occupation of Eastern Europe (1945-47):
o      Came to control states by creating ‘satellite empire’
o      Countries keep separate legal identities but were tied into following Moscow’s line by:
o      Soviet military power (later formalized in Warsaw Pact in 1955)
o      ‘Salami tactics’ which transferred the machinery of the government into obedient pro-Soviet communists
o      State police and security/spy network
o      COMECON
o      Soviet control was in place in most Eastern European countries by 1947
o      Remained Czechoslovakia – Stalin decided that a coup to finally oust non-Communist members of the government would be necessary
o      By 1948, satellite states were economically and militarily under USSR control
o      Western allies saw ‘occupation’ of Eastern Europe as a direct breach pf the agreements made at Yalta and Potsdam

The ‘Mr X article’
o      Written by Keenan for Foreign Affairs in 1947
o      ‘Continue to regard the Soviet Union as a rival, not a partner’
o      Keenan was a strong influence on Truman
o      His reputation as the US key expert on Soviet policy also gave him influence over public opinion

Step Seven: The Czechoslovakian coup (February 1948):
o      Czechoslovakia was seen as moving towards the west – expressed interest in Marshall Plan
o      Sentimental feeling in West for the Czechs after their ‘abandonment’ in Munich Agreements of 1938
o      February 1948 Stalin organized pressure on Czechoslovakian coalition government
o      12 non-communist members were forced to resign
o      Czech communist party leader demanded formation of a communist-led government
o      Independent Czech foreign minister, Masaryk was found dead and Truman responded quickly calling it a ‘coup’
o      Financing of Marshall Plan had not been passed through Congress so events pushed bill through
o      ‘Czech coup’ was directly responsible for the implementation of the Marshall Plan

Step Eight: The Berlin crisis of 1948
o      Unlike Japan, much more difficult to leave Germany undivided during occupation
o      At Yalta and Potsdam it was agreed that Germany should be divided temporarily be divided into four zones administered by the Allied Control Council (ACC) with Berlin’s government being the responsibility of the Allied Kommandantura
o      Intended to treat Germany as one economic unit and expected Germany would emerge as a united independent state
o      By 1949, Germany had become permanently divided into two separate states

Why did the post war powers fail to unify Germany?
o      Germany’s key strategic position and differing aims of the main powers
o      Potential economic strength because of geographical location
o      USSR didn’t want a resurgent united Germany pose a threat to security
o      Wished for reparations of some $20billion
o      France feared united Germany so not keen to hasten recovery
o      US come to see best hope for European peace would lie in rapid economic recovery of Germany – best way of containing communism
o      The increasing lack of trust between East and West
o      Difference in aims and attitudes
o      Mutual suspicions
o      Became concerned that the powerful Germany could be a threat if it ever joined forces with the other side
o      By 1946 divided in both economic and political terms
o      The specific disputes between post-war powers within Germany itself
o      Economic conflict – reparations
o      Arrangements set up at Potsdam whereby the USSR was to take 25% of German industrial equipment from the Western zones in return for supplying those zones with food and raw material, but didn’t work as food shortages especially with refugees from Eastern Europe
o      Not delivering enough food to Western zones and being secretive about what it was taking from Soviet zone
o      US and UK stopped supplies to Soviet Zone
o      Soviets wanted coal from Western zones, but US wanted to use German coal to assist in the economic reconstruction of Western Europe
o      Early 1947, British and American zones were merged into one unit called Bizonia
o      Also political conflict
o      Stalin was planning as early as June 1945 to incorporate a reunified Germany within Moscow’s sphere of influence
o      Done using Red Army to control Soviet zone while the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) would attempt to get popular support
o      April 1946 the Soviets forced through a merger of political parties in their zone to form just one party- the Socialist Unity Party (SED)
o      Not successful in winning over West Germans
o      Would bring minimal economic assistance (compared to Marshall Aid) and no chance of democracy
o      SED leaders began planning their own separate regime in the East
o      By 1948, Western powers were beginning to think about consolidating their n zones and establishing within them a provisional German government
o      London Conference of Ministers in 1947 – Western and Soviet powers throwing recriminations at each other
o      Agreement on Germany’s future was remote
o      London Conference in 1948, France, Britain, and US met to draw up constitution for new West German state and introduce new currency
o      Blockade was to thwart plan and force West out Berlin
o      The Berlin Blockade 1948
o      As agreed at Potsdam, Berlin had been divided by four occupying powers
o      Problem – Berlin lay 100 miles in Soviet zone sealed off
o      Rely on receiving food and energy supplies from West delivered along rail, road, and air corridors
o      March 1948 – Stalin started putting a stranglehold on Western interests in West Berlin via transport restrictions
o      23-24 June 1948 – Stalin began total blockade, railroads, roads and waterways closed
o      USSR left Kommandantura, having already left ACC in March
o      First crisis of Cold War
o      West didn’t try to defeat blockade by force, but rather supplied Berlin from the air
o      Ended blockade May after admitting failure

Results of Berlin Blockade
o      First time since 1945 war became a possibility
o      Led to:
o      Division of Germany
·     West set up Federal Republic of Germany in September 1949
·     Soviets set up the German Democratic Republic
·     Neither side could contemplate the idea of a united Germany which could be an ally to the other side
·     For West, a divided Germany protected by US was preferable to neutral united Germany
·     Europe was divided politically and economically
o      Continuation of four-power control in Berlin
·     Berlin remained divided city
·     Major source of friction
o      Formation of the NATO
·     Soviet threat to Berlin, following the Czech coup, reinforced suspicions
·     Emphasized need for US defense in Europe
·     Formation of NATO April 1949 between USA, Canada, the Brussels Powers, Norway, Denmark, some more
·     US Congress approved a military assistance program to build up European forces
·     Presence in Europe was departure from normal US policy

Conclusions drawn about Europe’s situation at end of 1949:
o      Divided along economic, political, military lines
o      Germany wasn’t to be united
o      Two clear states, although neither was prepared to recognize the existence of each other
o      US had abandoned peacetime policy of avoiding commitments – involved in NATO, Marshall Plan
o      No peace treaty signed with Germany and boarders not formalized
o      Worrying for Poland as it now included territory taken from Germany in 1945
o      Western countries had developed unity
o      Many conflicts in world related to struggle between communism and capitalism
o      USA had policy of containment that lead to US resisting communism and fighting in Korean and Vietnam war
o      UN were never to play role envisioned
o      US and USSR opposing eachother and able to use their respective vetoes, the UN couldn't act effectivly to respolve international conflicts

Historiography
Orthodox view
o      Traditional view
o      Soviets were expansionist, due too their suspicion of the West and in accordance to their Marxist theory, which advocates the need to spread the revolution throughout the world
o      Violated Postsdam and Yalta agreements, occupied and imposed Soviet control in Eastern Europe and 'plotted' to spread Communism throughout the world with Moscow at center
o      US had to act defensively, from the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan and establishment of NATO
o      Historian - Arthur Schlesinger, W.H. McNeil and H. Feis

Revisionist view
o      Foreign policy in US crumbled during Vietnam War
o      Held responsible for Cold War
o      'Dollar diplomacy' - motives behind the US foreign policy were lnked to the needs of Capitalism
o      Containment of communism was driven by requirement to secure markets and free trade and penetrate Eastern Europe
o      Gabriel and Joyce Kolko view Soviet action as even less relevant to US foreign policy
o      American policy determined by the nature of Capitalism and fears of recession
o      Thomas PAtterson - 'coercion characterized US reconstruction diplomacy'
o      Stalin himself was a pragmatic leader and had Americans been willing to understand the Soviets' need for security and offer some comprimises, Stalin would have made concessions
o      P.M.S. Blanckett - dropping the nuclear bombs was not important as the last military campaign of WWII, but rather as the first diplomatic move by US in Cold War
o      Alperovitz suggests Japan was already defeated, and this 'new weapon was used to warn and intmidate Soviets

Post-revisitionist View
o      Stress the USA and USSR can't be held solely responsible for origins
o      John Lewis Gaddis - 'complicated interaction of external and internal developments inside US and USSR'
o      Walter LaFaber/John Lewis Gaddis - misinterpretations played important part
o      Super powers overestimated the strenght and threat of eachother
o      Tension of 1940s was a result of a pattern of 'action and reaction' - both sides were improvising rather than following a well-defined plan of action
o      West did not fully recognize Soviet's motives

Views of post-Cold War historians
o      John Lewis Gaddis - 'as long as Stalin was running the Soviet Union, a Cold War was unavoidable'
o      Fall of Soviet Union in 1989-90, many new Soviet sources were made available
o      Russian historians were also now free to write their own accounts
o      Focus on role of Stalin
o      Stalin's policies with the Soviet totalitarian/authoritarian govenrment drew West into an escalation of hostility and the protracted arms race
o      If Stalin is removed from equation, Cold War unlikely to have developed
o      Individuals and their actions, rather than policies of whole governments, are vital importance in explaining key events in Cold War
o      Obveous in origins of Korean War and Berlin Crisis

European role in development of Cold War
o      1980s - governments realised private documents '30 year rule'
o      European governments, economically devistated by war, haboured deep anxieties about Soviet expansionism had important impact on US foreign policy
o      British hightened US awareness and perception of Soviet threat - Churchill Iron Speech
o      Revisionist and post-revisionist did not conseder complexity of US foreign policy
o      Geir Lunestad - cannot be properly understood by taking into account the influence of external factors, such as European fears and opinions

Soviet perspective
o      Due to censorship and controls
o      'Soviet Revisionists' Focused on the role of Stalin
o      Initial stages of Cold War, Soviets maintained that Americans were pursuing a policy of agressive 'dollar imperialism' dictated by needs of Capitalism
o      Accused US of trying to take over Europe economically and under control 'of strong and enriched foreign firms, banks and industrial companies'
o      Moscow was trying to 'find security' to rebuild after war
o      Historians on both sides iron certian have reconsidered the role of ideology and the search for security in Soviet foreign policy
o      Crucial initial stages of the Cold War the Soviets believed that the triumph of socialism was unavoidable and USSR should help Communist groups to fulfil this aim
o      Greatest motive for USSR froeign policy was fear if renewed German and Japnese agression, and agression from capitalist world

'Balance of Power' vs Ideology
o      Conflict wasn't about ideology
o      USA and USSR expansionist powers
o      Hostility followed 1945 was a continuation of policies they had respectivly pursued since 19th century
o      LaFaber - did not initially come into conflict becuase one was communist and other capitalist - America expanded westward and Russia eastward

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